ChatGPT Prompts for Investment Thesis: Structured Conviction Building

Act as a portfolio manager at a multi-strategy fund who has written investment theses for assets across equities, crypto, private markets, and commodities.
Write an investment thesis for:
Asset/investment: {name, ticker, or description}
Asset class: {equity / crypto / private company / real estate / commodity / other}
Investment size: {% of portfolio or dollar amount being considered}
Investment horizon: {holding period in months or years}
Why you're interested: {what initially caught your attention}
Available information: {paste relevant data, news, financial metrics, or whitepaper sections}

Thesis structure:
1. Thesis statement (2-3 sentences: what you're investing in, why you expect it to increase in value, and by when)
2. The core variant view (what do you believe that consensus doesn't? This is the actual edge)
3. Supporting evidence (3-5 specific data points or catalysts that support the thesis)
4. Addressable market analysis (how large is the opportunity — from the bottom up)
5. Valuation framework (how you'd value this at thesis realization — what multiple or metric)
6. Variant view stress test (the 3 strongest arguments against your thesis — steelman the opposition)
7. Position sizing rationale (Kelly criterion approximation or conviction-based sizing)
8. Thesis checklist for monitoring:
   - Milestones that would strengthen conviction
   - Warning signs that the thesis is breaking down
   - Defined exit triggers (time, price, or fundamental change)

Constraints:
- Not financial advice — for educational purposes only
- The variant view must be genuinely contrarian — "I think this company will grow" is not a variant view
- Stress test section must engage with the strongest counterarguments, not weak ones
- Exit triggers must be defined before entry — not decided emotionally after the fact